Johnson will struggle to duplicate last seasons success in 2010

Chris Johnson is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons for a running back in recent history. He broke Marshall Faulks single-season record for scrimmage yards (2,509), finished with 16 total touchdowns and led all players on NFL.com in fantasy points (329).

Based on those numbers, hes already been labeled the king of the fantasy football mountain and the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2010 drafts. And really, its hard not to hand him that sort of status. Hes young, explosive and one of the true featured running backs left in the National Football League.

If the past is any indicator, though, Johnson isnt going to duplicate his impressive 2009 numbers next season.

Since 2000, only two players who led the league in fantasy points went on to do it again the very next season. Those players were Marshall Faulk (2000-2001) and Priest Holmes (2002-2003). Since then, no one has accomplished the feat.

Whats more, the difference in points from one season to the next has been enormous in many cases. The smallest differential over the last five years was achieved by Drew Brees, who led all fantasy players with 294 points in 2008 and scored just 14 fewer points (280) in 2009.

But as youll see, that hasnt been the norm.

In 2007, Tom Brady set the fantasy world on fire with 4,806 yards, 52 total touchdowns and 377 points. We all know what happened to Tom Terrific in 2008. He finished with 11 pass attempts and one fantasy point before suffering a season-ending knee ailment.

Injuries were to blame in the cases of other players as well. Shaun Alexander, who led all players in fantasy points in 2005 with 349, missed six games the very next season and finished with a mere 120 points.

Daunte Culpepper ruled the fantasy world in 2004, scoring 356 points. He would go on to miss nine games the following season and finished with a mere 62 points. Neither Alexander nor Culpepper ever reached their previous fantasy heights again.

Ironically, both players were on the cover of the Madden video game before being hurt.

Holmes, who has led the fantasy football world in points in two consecutive seasons over the last nine years, missed eight games in 2004. That led to a 182-point decrease in fantasy production.

You cant blame injuries for the downfall of every fantasy leader, though.

LaDainian Tomlinson had the best season of his career in 2006 with 2,323 scrimmage yards and an NFL-record 31 total touchdowns. He did have a solid campaign in 2007, but L.T. still scored 118 fewer points compared to the previous season. The same holds true of Faulk. After putting up 2,189 scrimmage yards, 26 touchdowns and 374 fantasy points in 2000, Faulk finished the following season with 40 fewer points.

Overall, fantasy leaders over the last nine years saw a 154-point average drop in production the very next season. Thats including the players who were injured, though, so the total is a bit skewed. If we remove the injured leaders (Brady, Alexander, Culpepper, Holmes - 2004) the remaining leaders (Brees, Tomlinson, Holmes - 2002, Faulk) still saw an average drop of 61 points.

To further prove the point that Johnsons numbers are destined to fall, lets take a look at the top-scoring fantasy backs since 2000 and the best single seasons from the position based on scrimmage yards.

The only backs to lead the league in fantasy points and actually score more points the following season were Alexander and Holmes. In 2004, Alexander scored an impressive 285 points. He was a full 64 points better in 2005 during what was the best season of his career. Holmes saw a one-point increase from 2002-2003.

Of the eight running backs to record 2,300-plus scrimmage yards in a single season, not one has duplicated that yardage total the following season. Faulk came the closest with a 240-point decrease from 1999-2000, while Edgerrin James had the largest drop off with 1,448 fewer yards from 2000-2001. The three players (Faulk, Tiki Barber, Tomlinson) ranked below Johnson in that category, on average, experienced a 366-yard decrease.

So what do these numbers mean?

Well, that doesnt mean you shouldnt take Johnson in your draft. Barring injuries, he should still post around 2,000-2,200 scrimmage yards and score double-digit touchdowns. And with true featured backs going the way of the dinosaur in the NFL, Johnson still deserves to be the top overall pick in all fantasy drafts.

But if youre expecting him to make the same impact in 2010 that he did last season, history isnt on your side.

Moss predicts 2010 will be his last season with Patriots

Moss, who turns 33 this month, is entering the final year of a three-year, $27 million contract extension and doesnt believe hell get a new deal following the 2010 season.

I dont think theyre going to extend my contract here, Moss said. I understand the beast, the nature of it. I think that what I think, what I know, I dont think theyre going to re-sign me back. So, after this season, if theres not a lockout, Ill be looking for a new team. Ive got a lot of respect for the Patriots and what they did for me and my family. The only thing I can do is play this year out and see what my future holds after that.

Moss spoke about his future at the charity softball game of former Patriots teammate Heath Evans, and his comments were reported by both The Boston Globe and Boston Herald.

When asked why he wont be back, Moss said its the nature of the business and he has no ill-will toward the Patriots.

Its the business of it, man, said Moss. You got to understand the business of football. There is not bad blood. There is no animosity on my side or their side. I think its just the nature of the business of the NFL.

You know the Patriots dont really pay, so when I got my second contract from them that was a blessing in disguise. I understand the business. I dont think theyre going to re-sign me back. Im not mad. Im not bitter. Its just the way things are in this NFL, so like I said after this year Ill be looking for a new team. I think so.

Dolphins CB Allen arrested, charged with DUI

Miami Dolphins cornerback Will Allen has been arrested and charged with driving under the influence in Miami Beach.

Jail records show Allen was arrested Saturday and was being held at the Pretrial Detention Center in Miami on $1,000 bond.

A spokesman for the Dolphins declined comment, saying the team only recently learned about the incident.

Messages left with the Miami Beach Police Department were not immediately returned. The records did not indicate whether he has an attorney.

Allen is a nine-year NFL veteran. He missed the final 10 games last season because of a knee injury that required surgery.

The New York Giants drafted Allen in the first round and he played five seasons there before being signed by the Dolphins.

Jets QB Sanchez upbeat after surgery on troublesome left knee

New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez had surgery to repair the patella ligament in his left knee Wednesday and said on his Twitter page that the procedure went exceptionally well.

Sanchez is expected to completely recover in three to four months, a source with knowledge of the situation told NFL Networks Jason La Canfora. That means Sanchez might miss most of the Jets offseason program, but he should be OK well before training camp opens in July.

Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum said via e-mail Wednesday that its still too soon to target a return date for Sanchez, but the team will have a better idea in a month. Tannenbaum did say that Sanchez should be ready before camp.

Sanchez, who led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game as a rookie, can attend all offseason meetings and off-the-field prep while he recovers. Hes aiming to return in mid-May.

Sanchez dislocated the kneecap during fall practice before his junior season at USC. He has worn a brace on the knee since, but he aggravated the injury during a Nov. 29 game against the Carolina Panthers.

Jets physician Dr. Ken Montgomery and orthopedist Dr. Elliott Hershman performed the operation Wednesday at Morristown (N.J.) Memorial Hospital, located a few miles from the teams facility in Florham Park. The surgery was expected to help prevent future tweaks to Sanchezs kneecap area.

New Arena Football League opens in April, already eyeing expansion

The Arena Football League, reborn under new leadership after folding last year, already is looking to add teams in Philadelphia, Southern California, Denver and Pittsburgh.

AFL Commissioner Jerry Kurz said on a conference call Wednesday that the league has held serious negotiations to place teams in those markets beginning with the 2011 season. The Philadelphia Soul won the last AFL title in 2008.

We are so excited to be talking to the Philadelphia market, and we would love nothing more than for Jon Bon Jovi, Craig Spencer and Ron Jaworski to join our league, Kurz said. Our ownership has already extended an offer to them to join us.

No one has done more for the brand of arena football than that collective group.

Kurz said a new group of owners spent $6.1 million for the assets of the defunct Arena Football League, including the name, history and records. It will relaunch in April with 15 teams — about half of them from the former AFL and the remainder from what used to be known as arenafootball2.

Kurz didnt set out concrete plans for how many teams the AFL eventually hopes to include. There were 17 AFL teams when the league went bankrupt last year, and another 25 participated in af2.

I think that horizon is open. Our ownership is dedicated to expansion and covering the country, Kurz said. However, theyre also dedicated to bringing in expansion markets and teams as it is appropriate — when we can make sure that theres great ownership in a city, great community support and its appropriate — not just to have teams here and there.

Kurz said the new AFL will follow the model of Major League Soccer in having all players and coaches employed by the league instead of by individual teams in a bid to correct an economic model that failed. That arrangement will allow the league to collectively seek out such needs as equipment deals and workers compensation coverage.

Its power buying, not unlike large chains that do that as well, to capitalize on size and quantity, Kurz said.

All players will be paid a uniform amount, Kurz said, although he kept that figure confidential.

Control is not a bad word, Kurz said. Control is a very good word in these challenging economic times.

The AFL already has reached a one-year deal with the NFL Network to broadcast a Friday night game of the week, beginning with Chicago at Iowa on April 2. Kurz said 14 of the 15 teams will be featured during the regular season.

The eight-team playoffs and Arena Bowl, which will be played at the home of the higher seed, also will be televised.

Team owners and executives include former Chicago Bears coach Mike Ditka, former Cleveland Browns quarterback Bernie Kosar and former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Danny White.

Former AFL teams that will resume operations include Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Arizona, Utah, Orlando and Tampa Bay. Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Alabama, Bossier-Shreveport, Iowa, Spokane, Jacksonville and Milwaukee will move from af2 into the new league.

It is essential for all of our teams to be successful in their own markets, of course, Kurz said. However, all of our teams must be working for the common goal and that is all teams being sustainable in this challenging economic time.

The AFL had been playing its high-scoring brand of indoor football for 22 years before it folded last year. John Elway, Jerry Jones and Bon Jovi provided star power in management roles, and the league gained a bounce in credibility when former Iowa quarterback Kurt Warner went on to lead the St. Louis Rams to a Super Bowl title. Games were eventually shown on NBC and ESPN.

But revenue couldnt keep up with costs, and the 2009 season was canceled before the league announced it was shutting down in August. Plans for the new league surfaced about one month later.

The thing right now that everybody needs to realize is that there are a lot of sacrifices being made by a lot of people who are counting on this league succeeding and that the future is bright, White said.

I think 2009, when the history books have been written, may go down as maybe the single most important year in the history of arena football because it was a chance for us to take a little bit of a break, step back. I kind of liken it to the pause that you take when youre shifting gears. … I think with this model, with an opportunity for the owners to actually make a profit, the sky is the limit for the Arena Football League.

Peppers: No long-term deal in Carolina

Julius Peppers no longer wants a long-term contract with Carolina, saying the Panthers have ignored him this offseason.

In an interview that aired Tuesday morning on Charlotte radio station WFNZ-AM, the five-time Pro Bowl defensive end indicated hes irritated by the teams silence and has changed his stance on whether he wants to continue his career in Carolina.

Last year, at the time, that was the option that I wanted most, Peppers said. Now its not.

While agent Carl Carey said last week he believes the Panthers arent interested in retaining Peppers, Carolinas career sacks leader, team officials havent announced their plans for the impending free agent. General manager Marty Hurney didnt immediately return a phone message Tuesday.

How can you say you want to be somewhere when youre not really sure if they want you there because theyre not even talking to you? Peppers said.

Its another twist in a long-running saga between the two sides.

After being held to a career-low 2 sacks in 2007, the Panthers still offered to make Peppers the NFLs highest-paid defensive player. Peppers on Tuesday provided conflicting reasons on why he rejected the contract.

That deal was to make me the highest-paid defensive player, but slightly, very slightly, Peppers said. I didnt really feel the sincerity behind that deal.

But later in the rambling answer during the radio phone interview, Peppers also indicated he wasnt worthy of such a deal.

I had 2 sacks that season and theyre coming to offer me being the highest-paid defensive player. Like, I cant even accept that, Peppers said. Im not deserving of that.

Peppers bounced back with a career-high 14 sacks in 2008, then announced he wanted to play elsewhere and pleaded with the Panthers to let him leave in free agency. He said Tuesday he wanted out because he was upset with the teams direction under then-defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac.

In my eyes I didnt see us getting any better on that side of the ball, Peppers said. I felt like it was time to try somewhere else, do something else. But things changed. They brought in new people.

Trgovac and defensive line coach Sal Sunseri left. Ron Meeks took over the defense and Brian Baker replaced Sunseri. At the same time, the Panthers placed the restrictive franchise tag on Peppers, limiting his options in free agency.

I never felt that they did that with the intent to keep me here, Peppers said. I felt like they did that in an attempt to send me off somewhere else to get compensation, draft picks or whatever.

There was no deal and Peppers eventually changed his tune, beginning negotiations on a long-term contract. But a deal couldnt be reached and Peppers played under the one-year tender worth an NFL-high $16.7 million. After recording 10 sacks, Peppers made the Pro Bowl and earned a $1.5 million bonus.

The Panthers could use the franchise tag again in 2010, but it would include a 20 percent raise. Peppers would be due $20.1 million, plus another $1.5 million Pro Bowl bonus and $250,000 for each playoff victory.

Carolina could use the franchise tag again and try to trade Peppers, but Peppers would almost certainly first have to agree to a long-term deal with that team.

Several clubs, such as Philadelphia and New England, could be interested. But there are also questions about Peppers inconsistency. He acknowledged on Tuesday that even former defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, now coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, told him during his rookie year in 2002 that it doesnt appear hes playing hard on every down.

I told him just because it doesnt look like Im running as hard as the next man with my arms swinging, sweating and breathing hard doesnt mean Im not trying as hard, Peppers said. Im still trying hard, it just doesnt look like it. I do it easier.

But despite 81 sacks in eight seasons, the 30-year-old Peppers future is murky. The Panthers have until Feb. 25 to use the franchise tag.

The silence says a lot without saying anything, Peppers said. That is kind of a turnoff.

Despite loss, Colts early favorite to win 2011 Super Bowl

One bad pass by Peyton Manning hasnt cost the Indianapolis Colts any cachet.

Manning and the Colts are favored to win next years Super Bowl.

Indianapolis is a 7-1 favorite to take home the NFL championship, followed by the Chargers (8-1), Saints (9-1) and the Patriots (10-1).

The Rams, coming off a 1-15 season, are the longest shot on the board at 150-1.

The Colts were 5-point favorites in the Super Bowl on Sunday, but Drew Brees and the Saints rallied for a 31-17 victory. New Orleans sealed the upset when Tracy Porter intercepted Mannings pass and returned it for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.

Indianapolis is 3-1 to get back to the Super Bowl, while New Orleans is 5-1.

Browns release Stallworth ahead of reinstatement

Donte Stallworth will get the chance to resurrect his NFL career, but it wont happen in Cleveland.

The Browns released the troubled wide receiver on Monday, wasting little time after NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said Friday that Stallworth would be reinstated following the Super Bowl.

Stallworth was suspended for the 2009 season by Goodell after he pleaded guilty to killing a pedestrian while driving drunk in Florida. He spent 24 days in jail.

I think hes in a better place than he was, Goodell said on Friday, adding that he met with Stallworth about a month ago. I think he recognizes what he did and the horrific nature and the unfortunate outcome, and I think hes prepared himself to get back in and play.

Stallworth, 29, spent one season with the Browns, catching 17 passes for 170 yards and one touchdown in 2008 while battling injuries. A college star at Tennessee, he has also played with New England, Philadelphia and New Orleans since the Saints drafted him in the first round in 2002.

Browns coach Eric Mangini dodged questions about Stallworths future with the team throughout the season. Since then, Mike Holmgren took over as president of the Browns. The team released a one sentence statement on Monday stating Stallworths contract had been terminated.

Stallworth struck 59-year-old crane operator Mario Reyes the morning of March 14 in Miami. He pleaded guilty June 16 to DUI manslaughter, a second-degree felony, and was suspended by Goodell two days later.

I will carry the burden of Mr. Reyes death for the rest of my life, Stallworth said in a statement at the time. I urge NFL fans not to judge NFL players or me based on my tragic lapse in judgment. I am a good person who did a bad thing. I will use the period of my suspension to reflect, fulfill my obligations, and use this experience to make a positive impact on the lives of those who look up to NFL players.

Stallworth signed a seven-year, $35 million contract with Cleveland in 2008 and received a $4.5 million bonus the night before the crash.

Saints rally to beat Colts in Super Bowl

The ultimate underdogs, they aint. Not anymore. The Saints are Super Bowl champions now.

Who Dat? Try Drew Brees, Sean Payton and a team that has reversed its embarrassing past, carrying an entire city to the top with it.

Put away those paper bags forever.

Brees and the Saints rallied to upset Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts 31-17 Sunday night in one of pro footballs most thrilling title games.

“We just believed in ourselves and we knew that we had an entire city and maybe an entire country behind us, said Brees, the games MVP. “What can I say? I tried to imagine what this moment would be like for a long time, and its better than expected.

But not something many expected from these descendants of the hapless Aints, who were 5-point underdogs.

“Four years ago who ever thought this would be happening when 85 percent of the city was under water from (Hurricane) Katrina, Brees said. “Most people not knowing if New Orleans would ever come back or if the organization and the team would come back. … This is the culmination of that belief and that faith.

Brees tied a Super Bowl record with 32 completions, the last a 2-yard slant to Jeremy Shockey for the winning points with 5:42 remaining. He was 32 for 39 for 288 yards.

A surprise onside kick sparked the Saints second-half comeback. Their 25th-ranked defense made several key stops, and Tracy Porters 74-yard interception return on a pass from Manning clinched it.

Manning tried to give chase, but was blocked by a New Orleans defender and fell awkwardly as the cornerback raced by. The four-time NFL MVP forlornly walked to the sideline as the Big Easy celebrations began.

“Its time for the Saints to celebrate, he said. “Its their field and its their championship.

An NFL also-ran for much of their 43 years, the Saints football renaissance, led by Brees and Payton, climaxed with Shockeys touchdown and Lance Moores 2-point conversion catch, originally ruled incomplete but overturned on Paytons challenge.

Porters pick, just as dramatic as his interception of Brett Favres pass to force overtime in the NFC title game, was the games only turnover. Its one Manning will forever regret.

The Saints (16-3) won three postseason games this winter after winning only two in the previous 42 years. They beat Arizona, Minnesota and Indianapolis (16-3) - all division winners - for their first title, scoring 107 points and allowing only 59.

“We werent the Aints, Porter said. “We were a team of destiny, a team that can make big plays.

The championship came 4 1/2 years after Katrina ravaged New Orleans, making the Saints nomads for the 2005 season. There even was some doubt they would return, but the NFL refused to abandon the city. The Superdome was repaired and the Saints won the NFC South in 06, their first season with Brees and Payton.

That was the season Manning won his only Super Bowl. He got the Colts off a quick start and had them in front for much of this one, but New Orleans league-leading offense, which scored 510 points this season, outscored Indy 31-7 after falling behind 10-0. That matched the biggest comeback in a Super Bowl.

Payton held the Vince Lombardi Trophy high over his head and ran into the end zone toward several hundred fans chanting the Saints rally cry: “Who dat, who dat, who dat say gonna beat dem Saints?

Nobody can say it now.

“Everybody back in New Orleans gets a piece of this trophy, he said.

“I think I could kiss him, owner Tom Benson said.

Before many of the 74,059 fans got settled following the Whos halftime show, the Saints worked a little football voodoo. Thomas Morsteads onside kick was touched by the Colts Hank Baskett, then recovered by Chris Reis at the New Orleans 42.

“I just told our guys youve got to make me look good on this, Payton said. “That really becomes like a turnover.

Looking like the NFLs most potent offense, the Saints seized the opportunity to take their first lead. It came on Pierre Thomas brilliant 16-yard run with a screen pass, capped by a dive into the end zone.

Manning simply shrugged, found Dallas Clark for 45 yards on a 76-yard drive, and Joseph Addai used a spin move a figure skater would envy to score from the 4.

But that was it for Indy.

“I certainly know how it was three years ago when we won, Manning said. “I know the people of New Orleans and the Saints have that same feeling right now.

Hartley, the hero of the NFC title game with his 40-yard field goal in OT, made a 47-yarder later in the third period. After Matt Stover was wide left on a 51-yarder early in the final quarter, Brees led the biggest drive in Saints history.

“We really felt as underdogs we had the better team, Payton said. “To be in that position where maybe a lot of people were picking against us, we liked the spot we were in.

Manning looked sharp on the Colts first two series, taking them 53 yards to a 38-yard field goal by Stover, at 42 the oldest player in Super Bowl history.

Then Manning led a 96-yard, 11-play drive that appeared almost routine, even though it tied the longest march in a Super Bowl. Addai rushed for 53 yards on the series, and Manning found Pierre Garcon behind backup cornerback Osama Young for the 19-yard score on third down.

New Orleans couldnt match that, but did get a 46-yard field goal by Hartley to make it 10-3. Brees was sacked on third down by All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney, who sure looked frisky despite ligament damage in his right ankle that made his availability uncertain for two weeks.

Then Indys defense, ranked 18th during the season but staunch in the playoffs, really showed some power. After the Saints marched 71 yards, including 40 yards on two receptions by Marques Colston, New Orleans had third-and-goal at the 1. Mike Bell slipped trying to run right behind All-Pro guard Jahri Evans, and Thomas was stacked up at the line by Gary Brackett and Clint Sessions on fourth down.

But the Colts went against type and ran three times, leaving 35 seconds for the leagues most prolific offense to get in position for Hartleys 44-yard field goal and a more manageable 10-6 halftime deficit.

Shootout? More like a slowdown. Indy had two three-and-outs and New Orleans had one.

But the points came quickly after halftime - mostly for the Saints.

“Look around the stadium, linebacker Scott Fujita said. “It was like 6- or 7-to-1 (Saints fans). The black and gold just poured into Miami.

“The whole world was behind us. This was bigger than just a game for the Saints. We are the worlds team.

Warren Sapp arrested, pulled from NFL Network

Former football star Warren Sapp was arrested Saturday following an alleged domestic violence incident at a Miami Beach hotel, police said.

Sapp was charged with one count of misdemeanor domestic battery and is expected to appear before a Miami-Dade County judge Sunday, Miami Beach police spokesman Juan Sanchez said.

Shortly after officials confirmed the charge, the NFL Network, for which Sapp is an analyst, spokesman Dennis Johnson said in an e-mail to The Associated Press that Sapp wouldnt be part of Super Bowl coverage this weekend.

“We have been made aware of the arrest of Warren Sapp by the Miami Beach Police Department, a network statement said. “In light of these circumstances, Warren Sapp will not appear on NFL Network while we review the matter.

The domestic violence allegation was reported around noon Saturday and detectives interviewed Sapp later that day, Sanchez said. The incident occurred early Saturday morning at the Shore Club hotel, according to a police news release.

A telephone message left for Sapps attorney was not immediately returned, nor was an e-mail.

Sanchez said Sapp was expected to be transferred to Miami-Dade County jail Saturday.

Sapp, a former defensive tackle, played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Oakland Raiders during his NFL career. He was also once a contestant on ABCs “Dancing with the Stars.

Sapp was in South Florida as part of the NFL Networks coverage of Sundays Super Bowl between the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts.