Johnson will struggle to duplicate last seasons success in 2010
Chris Johnson is coming off one of the best fantasy seasons for a running back in recent history. He broke Marshall Faulks single-season record for scrimmage yards (2,509), finished with 16 total touchdowns and led all players on NFL.com in fantasy points (329).
Based on those numbers, hes already been labeled the king of the fantasy football mountain and the consensus No. 1 overall pick in 2010 drafts. And really, its hard not to hand him that sort of status. Hes young, explosive and one of the true featured running backs left in the National Football League.
If the past is any indicator, though, Johnson isnt going to duplicate his impressive 2009 numbers next season.
Since 2000, only two players who led the league in fantasy points went on to do it again the very next season. Those players were Marshall Faulk (2000-2001) and Priest Holmes (2002-2003). Since then, no one has accomplished the feat.
Whats more, the difference in points from one season to the next has been enormous in many cases. The smallest differential over the last five years was achieved by Drew Brees, who led all fantasy players with 294 points in 2008 and scored just 14 fewer points (280) in 2009.
But as youll see, that hasnt been the norm.
In 2007, Tom Brady set the fantasy world on fire with 4,806 yards, 52 total touchdowns and 377 points. We all know what happened to Tom Terrific in 2008. He finished with 11 pass attempts and one fantasy point before suffering a season-ending knee ailment.
Injuries were to blame in the cases of other players as well. Shaun Alexander, who led all players in fantasy points in 2005 with 349, missed six games the very next season and finished with a mere 120 points.
Daunte Culpepper ruled the fantasy world in 2004, scoring 356 points. He would go on to miss nine games the following season and finished with a mere 62 points. Neither Alexander nor Culpepper ever reached their previous fantasy heights again.
Ironically, both players were on the cover of the Madden video game before being hurt.
Holmes, who has led the fantasy football world in points in two consecutive seasons over the last nine years, missed eight games in 2004. That led to a 182-point decrease in fantasy production.
You cant blame injuries for the downfall of every fantasy leader, though.
LaDainian Tomlinson had the best season of his career in 2006 with 2,323 scrimmage yards and an NFL-record 31 total touchdowns. He did have a solid campaign in 2007, but L.T. still scored 118 fewer points compared to the previous season. The same holds true of Faulk. After putting up 2,189 scrimmage yards, 26 touchdowns and 374 fantasy points in 2000, Faulk finished the following season with 40 fewer points.
Overall, fantasy leaders over the last nine years saw a 154-point average drop in production the very next season. Thats including the players who were injured, though, so the total is a bit skewed. If we remove the injured leaders (Brady, Alexander, Culpepper, Holmes - 2004) the remaining leaders (Brees, Tomlinson, Holmes - 2002, Faulk) still saw an average drop of 61 points.
To further prove the point that Johnsons numbers are destined to fall, lets take a look at the top-scoring fantasy backs since 2000 and the best single seasons from the position based on scrimmage yards.
The only backs to lead the league in fantasy points and actually score more points the following season were Alexander and Holmes. In 2004, Alexander scored an impressive 285 points. He was a full 64 points better in 2005 during what was the best season of his career. Holmes saw a one-point increase from 2002-2003.
Of the eight running backs to record 2,300-plus scrimmage yards in a single season, not one has duplicated that yardage total the following season. Faulk came the closest with a 240-point decrease from 1999-2000, while Edgerrin James had the largest drop off with 1,448 fewer yards from 2000-2001. The three players (Faulk, Tiki Barber, Tomlinson) ranked below Johnson in that category, on average, experienced a 366-yard decrease.
So what do these numbers mean?
Well, that doesnt mean you shouldnt take Johnson in your draft. Barring injuries, he should still post around 2,000-2,200 scrimmage yards and score double-digit touchdowns. And with true featured backs going the way of the dinosaur in the NFL, Johnson still deserves to be the top overall pick in all fantasy drafts.
But if youre expecting him to make the same impact in 2010 that he did last season, history isnt on your side.
Posted on February 26th, 2010 by admin
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